Not since George Orwell's 1984 -- and certainly ever since Arthur C. Clarke's 2001: A Space Odyssey (or at least Stanley Kubrick's film version of the novel) -- has a year held such mythic meaning. With the Y2K hysteria behind us, the real turn of the century is happening without any extra fanfare, slipping us into the third millennium gracefully, although perhaps lacking the image we've collectively held in the past.
Over the last fifty years, speculation has abounded -- particularly among Americans -- of a perfect modern world under their control. They believed in science and technology: that nuclear energy would make electricity too cheap to meter, that rockets would protect us from alien forces, that robots would do our dirty work, and that leisure time would increase.
Since the industrial era began, technology and commerce have fed a vision of tomorrow based on innovations of the day. Utopian novels such as Edward Bellamy's Looking Backward (1889) imagined colossal public buildings in stately piles: sky-bound steel, stone and glass marking an uplifting of spirit. Modeled after Manhattan, the high-rise towers enjoyed a web of walkways connecting the buildings, with hovercrafts zooming by at various speeds.
World Expos in Chicago, New York, St. Louis, Paris and San Francisco over the last century gave us examples of what our life would look like in years ahead -- and Disneyland let us ride to Tomorrowland. Nearly forty years ago, Seattle was home to its share of crystal-ball-gazing at a World's Fair called "Century 21 Exposition." The block-long Hall of Industry there highlighted a number of "way-out" exhibits of future developments, from home environments to space-age wonders. The Rohr Aircraft display included a satellite-tracking station as well as supersonic transport -- which did materialize just over a decade later with the Concorde, created by the British and French. And United Airlines foresaw an electronic reservations machine for booking ticketless travel.
Ford Motor's exhibit showed the train of tomorrow, Levetrain -- a high-speed, electronically controlled railway with vehicles moving on air from 200 to 500 miles per hour, much like Japan's bullet train today. Though predictions at that time claimed that wheel-less super-speed rail systems would be a fantastic alternative to car travel, it hasn't caught on, and congestion mounts. What was then known as the "monorail transport device" remains a Seattle tourist attraction consisting of a short jaunt from downtown to the Space Needle.
Many things predicted for the future, however, haven't come true and aren't anywhere close to hovering on the horizon. Some of the biggest prospects proposed at the World's Fair were moving sidewalks, jetports and General Motors' automated highways (first written about by Robert Heinlein in 1940), in which the driver becomes the passenger on magnetic lanes attached to cars that maintain traffic flow. Yet our attachment to autos has made mass transit less appealing than rush-hour jams in hermetically sealed individual vehicles. Another bust was the Monte-Copter Triphiban, a jet-helicopter for an executive's personal air transport from home to office -- for use on land, sea and air. "Dealerships now available," the 1962 ad copy read.
Shorter work weeks were forecast, thanks to automation. With a larger labor force enjoying a longer life span, leisure time would supposedly increase, too. But paperless offices made possible by computers haven't unfolded, either; according to Predicting the Future, by John Malone, it's easier to print out multiple revisions of documents.
At that same fair, Standard Oil suggested the imminent creation of weather-controlled domed cities, domed homes and domed desert farms, where temperature and light control would allow more crops to be produced for meeting world food needs. In this vision, weather could be modified to eliminate smog and crop damage. But in fact, while we have more mastery over crops today, world hunger persists.Prefab houses bolted together on residential lots could change color schemes coordinated to seasons and times. We were to enjoy round, spacious rooms with built-in vacuum systems to suck up dust; furniture made of foamed plastic; kitchens with solar ovens; and disposable dishes that were ground up in the trash. Sadly, only the Jetsons got to feast on this fantasy. Other predictions showed a manned expedition to Mars, endless energy sources, and supercities built over huge metropolitan areas with growing populations. Futurists expected that education would emphasize the arts more -- giving us something to pursue during all of our extra free time. According to the Wall Street Journal's American Tomorrow, that concept presumed that government and foundation funding of the arts would continue to increase.
And then there are some ideas that may have been considered outrageous in their day but actually panned out. As long ago as 1863, Jules Verne envisaged the fax machine ("photographic telegraphy") in his novel Paris in the 20th Century. His manuscript, which was rediscovered in 1989, was originally rejected by a publisher as preposterous. Verne foretold horseless carriages, electric lights, automated trains and manned travel to the moon.