Before the launch of the Winter Olympics in Vancouver, we told you about a Colorado professor who has in previous years predicted the hallmark medal winners with 94 percent accuracy -- all based on economic factors like per capita income, geography and home-field advantage.
But, so far, Canadian-born Daniel Johnson's prediction that host country Canada would take a big chunk of the medals has fallen short. His model, which before this year also a boasted gold medal prediction rate of 84 percent, said Canada would rake in twenty-seven medals, five of them gold, with the U.S. as the runner-up with twenty-six medals, five gold.
As of today, the U.S. is in first and has actually nabbed an impressive twenty-four medals, seven gold, with Germany (eighteen, six gold) and Norway (twelve, five gold) coming in second and third. Canada, Daniel's projected leader, is tied with Korea in fourth place with nine medals, four gold. Check out the updated medal count :
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And the U.S. is looking good to further debunk the Canadian win forecast after its 5-3 victory over Canada Sunday.
What made Daniel's predictive model unique was it's complete disregard for individual athletic skill, reputation, and other traditional sports prediction factors. It sticks strictly to the numbers, which for the last decade has been pretty on the mark.
But this year, as the Games wrap up Feb. 28, it's looking like a prophetic Olympic prediction is as flimsy as any other economic forecast.