Best Ode to Empty Space
Robert Bach, Grubb & Ellis
Robert Bach, national director of market analysis for Grubb & Ellis, appeared at an annual industrial- and office-property owners' meeting in Denver to deliver the bad news about this city's commercial-vacancy rate, which isn't expected to reach 10 percent until 2008. And that's going down. To soften the blow, he offered this song:
At the start of '03, landlords knew
it would be rough.
Tenants large and small,
there just weren't enough.
Yet the construction pipeline kept
delivering new space,
While leasing and absorption
could not keep pace . . .
Office landlords suffered and moaned,
but there was a silver lining.
Low interest rates and roller-coaster stocks
kept buyers pining
For Class A buildings with solid
rent rolls
And little rollover risk, that would be
investor's gold.
But what of '04, what does our crystal ball
tell us?
The market will improve, but not enough
to make tenants jealous
Of landlords (who) won't have much
bargaining power
Until 2005, when the market will be
less dour
So tenants make your best deals soon,
Lock in long-term low rates and whistle
a happy tune.
In 2004, landlords, you will begin to
climb out of your hole,
And you'll all feel better in 2005
When the Broncos win the Super Bowl.
