How Much Denver's Poor and Rich Will Lose or Gain Under New Health Care Plan

Representative Paul Ryan touting the House plan to repeal and replace Obamacare.
Representative Paul Ryan touting the House plan to repeal and replace Obamacare.
PBS Newshour via YouTube

This week, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that 24 million people would lose their insurance by 2026 under a new House health-care plan intended to replace Obamacare. That number would likely include many poor people and seniors in Denver, whose tax credits would be significantly smaller according to figures collected by the Kaiser Family Foundation. The KFF numbers also show that plenty of Denverites who are better off would see their tax credits rise, sometimes from zero into the thousands — and that trend can be seen across all three major age categories analyzed by the foundation.

This data is accessible via a Kaiser Family Foundation interactive map that allows visitors to look up plan-related tax credits for every county in the nation. Estimates are offered for individuals who are 27, forty and sixty, and who make between $20,000 and $100,000 per year.

Unfortunately, the map can be difficult to navigate, particularly for folks wanting to look up dollars and cents related to Denver County, which appears as a tiny speck even when magnified. To make it easier for you, we've pulled all the Denver-specific info, and it shows that the people with the lowest income in each age group would receive between $470 and $4,470 less in tax credits under the House plan than they've gotten under Obamacare. All sixty-year-olds making $50,000 or less would get shorted as well.

But the more individuals make, the more likely they are to come out on the plus side. Those who are 27 and earn between $40,000 and $75,000 are slated to get a $2,000 tax credit, whereas they previously received none under Obamacare (formal name: the Affordable Care Act). Likewise, sixty-year-olds bringing home $75,000 or above who previously didn't receive a tax credit would get ones worth $1,500 to $4,000. Arguably the biggest winners, though, would be forty-year-olds making $40,000. They'd see their tax credits go up a stunning 773 percent.

The odds that the bill will pass as is, even with Republican control in both the U.S. House and the Senate, continue to fall. At this point, even Representative Paul Ryan, the biggest cheerleader for the House measure, acknowledges that "necessary improvements" must be made. The following details demonstrates why the legislation has become such a tough sell.

Here's the data for Denver County. Click to try the map for yourself.

Age: 27

Income: $20,000
Tax credit under Affordable Care Act: $2,670
House tax credit in 2020: $2,000
Dollar change from ACA to House tax credit: -$670
Percentage change from ACA to House tax credit: -25 percent

Income: $30,000
Tax credit under Affordable Care Act: $1,150
House tax credit in 2020: $2,000
Dollar change from ACA to House tax credit: $850
Percentage change from ACA to House tax credit: +74 percent

Income: $40,000-$75,000
Tax credit under Affordable Care Act: $0
House tax credit in 2020: $2,000
Dollar change from ACA to House tax credit: $2,000
Percentage change from ACA to House tax credit: —

Income: $100,000
Tax credit under Affordable Care Act: $0
House tax credit in 2020: $0
Dollar change from ACA to House tax credit: $0
Percentage change from ACA to House tax credit: —

Age: 40

Income: $20,000
Tax credit under Affordable Care Act: $3,470
House tax credit in 2020: $3,000
Dollar change from ACA to House tax credit: -$470
Percentage change from ACA to House tax credit: -13 percent

Income: $30,000
Tax credit under Affordable Care Act: $1,940
House tax credit in 2020: $3,000
Dollar change from ACA to House tax credit: $1,060
Percentage change from ACA to House tax credit: +54 percent

Income: $40,000
Tax credit under Affordable Care Act: $340
House tax credit in 2020: $3,000
Dollar change from ACA to House tax credit: $2,660
Percentage change from ACA to House tax credit: +773 percent

Income: $50,000-$75,000
Tax credit under Affordable Care Act: $0
House tax credit in 2020: $3,000
Dollar change from ACA to House tax credit: $3,000
Percentage change from ACA to House tax credit: —

Income: $100,000
Tax credit under Affordable Care Act: $0
House tax credit in 2020: $500
Dollar change from ACA to House tax credit: $500
Percentage change from ACA to House tax credit: —

Age: 60

Income: $20,000
Tax credit under Affordable Care Act: $8,440
House tax credit in 2020: $4,000
Dollar change from ACA to House tax credit: -$4,440
Percentage change from ACA to House tax credit: -53 percent

Income: $30,000
Tax credit under Affordable Care Act: $6,910
House tax credit in 2020: $4,000
Dollar change from ACA to House tax credit: -$2,910
Percentage change from ACA to House tax credit: -42 percent

Income: $40,000
Tax credit under Affordable Care Act: $5,310
House tax credit in 2020: $4,000
Dollar change from ACA to House tax credit: -$1,310
Percentage change from ACA to House tax credit: -25 percent

Income: $50,000
Tax credit under Affordable Care Act: $4,290
House tax credit in 2020: $4,000
Dollar change from ACA to House tax credit: -$290
Percentage change from ACA to House tax credit: -7 percent

Income: $75,000
Tax credit under Affordable Care Act: $0
House tax credit in 2020: $4,000
Dollar change from ACA to House tax credit: $4,000
Percentage change from ACA to House tax credit: —

Income: $100,000
Tax credit under Affordable Care Act: 0
House tax credit in 2020: $1,500
Dollar change from ACA to House tax credit: $1,500
Percentage change from ACA to House tax credit: —


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