"There's no getting around the basic, day-to-day wage insecurity that people in Colorado are facing," says Scott Wasserman, president of the Bell Policy Center, the organization behind the study, "Colorado's Middle Class Families: Characteristics and Cost Pressures."
The document is accessible below in its entirety. But here, Wasserman and Todd Ely, an associate professor with the University of Colorado Denver School of Public Affairs and a co-author of the report, discuss some of the biggest takeaways from the analysis, with their observations illustrated by Bell Policy Center graphics.
As they reveal, the path to the middle class in Colorado has plenty of obstacles.
"Middle-income family decline is a national trend," Ely says, "and Colorado kind of follows that trajectory. But I think it's important to mention that the declining middle can be the result of a couple of things — both a growing lower-income group and a growing upper-income group. The change is offset by both of these things. So the broader narrative is very much about increasing inequality. Our data suggests that we're seeing increases in both extremes and the middle group shrinking in size — not tremendously, but by a decent amount."
• The share of middle-income Colorado families with young children has decreased from 27.4 percent in 2000 to 21.4 percent in 2016, while two-adult, no-child families have increased by 21.5 percent
"From a public-policy perspective, what families look like really matters for the services that are prioritized," Ely notes. "In Colorado, we've seen a big increase in individuals living on their own or two adults without children in the household. But when we talk about the middle class, we often associate it with the two adult-two child family, with kids in the home — and the family not only has a house, but is saving for college and retirement. So there's a bit of a different perspective of what middle class is for those without kids. And for those who do [have children], there's an increasing need to have two adults working."
"When we looked at 2016 in comparison with 2000, we saw that the predominance of at least a master's degree was becoming more important," Ely acknowledges. "At this point, I wouldn't say its essential for entry into the middle class. But in upper-class families with upper-income levels, almost half of the families have at least one graduate degree represented. And in the middle class, a quarter of families with a graduate degree is still a big number. In sixteen years, that's gone up 10 percentage points. I don't know what the future holds, but if you think that trend is going to persist, graduate education is going to be more and more important to getting the kind of jobs that will secure entry into the middle class."
"There's a really important debate going on right now over whether you need that graduate degree to make a middle-class life — and our report is showing us that in today's economy, you do," Wasserman adds. "Policy makers at the State Capitol are saying not everybody needs a college education. They're talking about apprenticeship programs that give people these middle-income skills. But what is going to change in our economy to help these people actually earn a middle-class income?"
In Wasserman's view, "this report shows we need to get those wages up. It's all well and good to say you can get these middle-income skills without a college degree. But policy makers need to have an honest discussion with employers in the state to say, 'You've got to get wages up, because what's supposed to be a middle income isn't cutting it.' And in the meantime, we've got to make higher education more affordable. In terms of the state budget and our whole fiscal situation, higher education is the most under threat of anything we fund as a state. And we've all seen how tuition has gone up for families over the past twenty years."
"This was an exercise where we took some Colorado-specific data from the federal government that included hourly wage rates on the low and high end for different occupations and looked at where that occupation would put you on the income spectrum — understanding that you would start on the low end and work toward the high end," Ely explains. "Now, the middle class in Colorado is overwhelmingly led by two adult workers and a family. And given that, even if 64 percent of those jobs are in the lower category, most families can double up, and that could put them squarely in the middle class. But there are definitely trade-offs they have to make for that to happen."