COVID-19 Cases Worse in Almost All Denver Neighborhoods

On November 5, Governor Jared Polis said that COVID-19 statistics collected by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment were so worrisome that he urged residents to cancel social plans for the next few weeks. He also hinted at further safety measures likely to be enacted in Denver following the city's shift last week to Level Orange (High Risk) on the state's dial system.

Why might Denver officials put more restrictions in place? The statistics documenting the spread of the novel coronavirus in locations across the city provide a vivid, and startling, rationale. The numbers have gotten worse for the overwhelming majority of Denver's 78 neighborhoods, with areas that were seeing few or no infections during weeks this summer suddenly experiencing case counts in the mid- and high double digits. Indeed, one neighborhood exceeded 200 cases in just seven days.

The city's COVID-19 data summary page includes a map that offers a weekly snapshot of cases. The stats collected for the week of August 2-8 captured a time when transmission in Denver was at a low ebb, but those from September 13-19 show that warning lights were starting to flicker despite the widespread view that the disease was still under control.

It wasn't, as seen when comparing the numbers from those weeks to the figures from October 25-31, the most recent available. In that August week, for instance, eighteen neighborhoods registered no positive cases. That number fell to ten for the week in September. But during the last week in October, just two — Sunnyside and Auraria — tallied no new cases. Furthermore, the August stats recorded just one neighborhood with a positivity case rate for resident infections above 1 percent per 100,000 residents. In September, eight neighborhoods surpassed that mark, led by University Park's 4.3 percent. But as of the end of October, 71 of 78 neighborhoods are over 1 percent and eighteen exceed 4.3 percent. The highest current rate is Elyria-Swansea's 7.3 percent.

Only four neighborhoods saw positivity rates stay the same or fall at the end of October; Sunnyside and Auraria, as well as Regis and University Park. The other 74 saw increases in both the rates and the number of people infected, and many of those increases were huge. During that week in September, Central Park (formerly Stapleton) had fewer than five positive cases; over the last week in October, that number climbed to 64.

But the most extreme rises came in Gateway/Green Valley Ranch, which had 23 positive cases over that September week and 184 during the last week in October, and Montbello, where the diagnoses jumped from 21 to a jaw-slackening 225.

This isn't just a deterioration. It's freefall.

Here are the stats for Denver neighborhoods from October 25 to 31, along with comparisons to figures from September 13-19, listed in ascending order of case rates.

Auraria
Total Cases 0 (same on September 13-19)
Case Rate 0 (same on September 13-19)

Sun Valley
Total Cases 0 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 0 (2.7 on September 13-19)

CBD (Central Business District)
Total Cases < 5 (0 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 0.6 (0 (same on September 13-19)

Wellshire
Total Cases < 5 (same on September 13-19)
Case Rate 0.6 (0.3 on September 13-19)

Cory-Merrill
Total Cases < 5 (0 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 0.7 (0 on September 13-19)

South Park Hill
Total Cases 8 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 0.8 (0.3 on September 13-19)

Kennedy
Total Cases 5 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 0.9 (0.4 on September 13-19)

Washington Park
Total Cases 8 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.0 (0.4 on September 13-19)

Hilltop
Total Cases 12 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.1 (0.2 on September 13-19)

Capitol Hill
Total Cases 20 (10 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.2 (0.6 on September 13-19)

North Capitol Hill
Total Cases 10 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.2 (0.1 on September 13-19)

Montclair
Total Cases 8 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.3 (0.6 on September 13-19)

City Park
Total Cases 5 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.4 (0.6 on September 13-19)

Goldsmith
Total Cases 9 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.4 (0.2 on September 13-19)

Cheesman Park
Total Cases 13 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.4 (0.3 on September 13-19)

Hale
Total Cases 13 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.5 (0.1 on September 13-19)

City Park West
Total Cases 9 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.5 (0.7 on September 13-19)

Cherry Creek
Total Cases 13 (0 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.6 (0 on September 13-19)

Sloan's Lake
Total Cases 13 (0 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.6 (0 on September 13-19)

Berkeley
Total Cases 15 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.6 (0.1 on September 13-19)

North Park Hill
Total Cases 16 (7 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.6 (0.7 on September 13-19)

Hampden South
Total Cases 31 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.7 (0.2 on September 13-19)

Lowry Field
Total Cases 17 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.9 (0.4 on September 13-19)

Washington Park West
Total Cases 15 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.9 (0.1 on September 13-19)

Whittier
Total Cases 10 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.9 (0.4 on September 13-19)

Baker
Total Cases 12 (5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 1.9 (0.8 on September 13-19)

Union Station
Total Cases 20 (13 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.0 (1.3 on September 13-19)

University Park
Total Cases 20 (42 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.1 (4.3 on September 13-19)

Congress Park
Total Cases 24 (5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.1 (0.4 on September 13-19)

Belcaro
Total Cases 11 (0 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.1 (0 on September 13-19)

Speer
Total Cases 28 (8 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.1 (0.6 on September 13-19)

Highland
Total Cases 29 (9 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.1 (0.7 on September 13-19)

University
Total Cases 22 (41 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.2 (4.1 on September 13-19)

Country Club
Total Cases 7 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.2 (0.6 on September 13-19)

Central Park (formerly Stapleton)
Total Cases 64 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.2 (0.1 on September 13-19)

Jefferson Park
Total Cases 13 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.2 (0.3 on September 13-19)

Windsor
Total Cases 32 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.2 (0.3 on September 13-19)

Sunnyside
Total Cases 25 (5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.2 (0.4 on September 13-19)

Hampden
Total Cases 46 (6 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.3 (0.3 on September 13-19)

Northeast Park Hill
Total Cases 21 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.3 (0.4 on September 13-19)

Indian Creek
Total Cases 8 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.4 (0.6 on September 13-19)

West Colfax
Total Cases 36 (6 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.4 (0.4 on September 13-19)

Virginia Village
Total Cases 34 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.4 (0.3 on September 13-19)

University Hills
Total Cases 15 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.4 (0.2 on September 13-19)

Platt Park
Total Cases 16 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.4 (0.4 on September 13-19)

Five Points
Total Cases 52 (14 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.4 (0.6 on September 13-19)

Washington Virginia Vale
Total Cases 36 (5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.5 (0.3 on September 13-19)

Regis
Total Cases 11 (15 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.5 (3.4 on September 13-19)

Southmoor Park
Total Cases 15 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.6 (0.5 on September 13-19)

Marston
Total Cases 32 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.6 (0.2 on September 13-19)

West Highland
Total Cases 27 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.6 (0.2 on September 13-19)

Skyland
Total Cases 10 (0 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.8 (0 on September 13-19)

East Colfax
Total Cases 31 (9 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.8 (0.8 on September 13-19)

Overland
Total Cases 8 (0 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 2.9 (0 on September 13-19)

Bear Valley
Total Cases 31 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 3.2 (0.4 on September 13-19)

Rosedale
Total Cases 9 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 3.2 (0.7 on September 13-19)

Cole
Total Cases 18 (5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 3.4 (0.4 on September 13-19)

Clayton
Total Cases 17 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 3.4 (0.2 on September 13-19)

Globeville
Total Cases 17 (8 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 4.0 (1.9 on September 13-19)

DIA
Total Cases 7 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 4.1 (1.2 on September 13-19)

Gateway/Green Valley Ranch
Total Cases 184 (23 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 4.2 (0.5 on September 13-19)

Harvey Park South
Total Cases 41 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 4.4 (0.3 on September 13-19)

Fort Logan
Total Cases 42 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 4.5 (0.2 on September 13-19)

Mar Lee
Total Cases 62 (8 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 4.5 (0.6 on September 13-19)

Ruby Hill
Total Cases 50 (7 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 4.6 (0.6 on September 13-19)

Harvey Park
Total Cases 63 (10 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 5.0 (0.8 on September 13-19)

Valverde
Total Cases 23 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 5.2 (0.9 on September 13-19)

Barnum
Total Cases 35 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 5.2 (0.6 on September 13-19)

Villa Park
Total Cases 53 (7 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 5.5 (0.7 on September 13-19)

Lincoln Park
Total Cases 20 (5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 5.6 (1.4 on September 13-19)

Civic Center
Total Cases 16 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 5.7 (1.1 on September 13-19)

Barnum West
Total Cases 34 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 5.8 (0.7 on September 13-19)

College View/South Platte
Total Cases 43 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 5.8 (0.7 on September 13-19)

Athmar Park
Total Cases 62 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 6.3 (0.3 on September 13-19)

Chaffee Park
Total Cases 28 (0 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 6.5 (0 on September 13-19)

Montbello
Total Cases 225 (21 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 6.6 (0.6 on September 13-19)

Westwood
Total Cases 127 (10 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 7.0 (0.6 on September 13-19)

Elyria-Swansea
Total Cases 49 (< 5 on September 13-19)
Case Rate 7.3 (0.1 on September 13-19)