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Dick Morris says Obama won't win because his supporters aren't going to vote

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"You have to understand that Barack Obama's strongest demographic are people that aren't gonna vote," Morris said to a crowd of about sixty supporters at the gathering, hosted by a group called Americans for Prosperity in Centennial Center Park yesterday afternoon.

The comment earned him a fair amount of laughs and applause from a crowd sitting under an awning next to the park's playground.

"He sweeps them -- unbelievable margins," Morris continues. "And they're not going to vote, because they look around them. They see this economy. They see what's going on here, and they understand how difficult it is and what a failure this administration has become."

Morris, who was a strategist for Clinton until he resigned after a scandal involving prostitutes and toe-sucking (earning him the Google-happy headline "Toe-sucking Dick Morris" on our pages), came to Colorado as part of the "Obama's Failing Agenda Tour." This initiative is organized by Americans for Prosperity, a group that is not technically affiliated with Romney's campaign. However, the conservative organization -- with Tea Party leanings and backing from the Koch brothers -- is definitely not a bastion of Obama fans.

As evidence, here's exhibit A.

Americans for Prosperity, or AFP, in addition to three anti-Obama buses traveling the country, is criticizing Obama's policies through millions of dollars of advertisements -- focused on key swing states like Colorado.

Another weapon? Dick Morris.

Morris, who was an hour and a half late to the Centennial event due to a flight delay, immediately jumped into wonky poll analysis, declaring that he's very confident Romney is going to win despite negative numbers in virtually all the polls and some tough headlines in recent weeks.

Comfortably, he argues.

"Everybody's wondering what's the deal after the two conventions," Morris says at the start of the event, after noting polls showing that Obama received a bounce in his lead after the DNC in Charlotte.

"Well, do not worry about it," he says. "Among battleground states like Colorado, when you break out the sample from those states, it's a 46-46 race. Absolutely dead even."

He explained that Obama's lead, despite the polls, is smaller among registered voters and a direct tie among "likely voters."

Unlikely voters would vote for Obama, but they aren't likely to vote, he explained, prompting cheers from the crowd.

He added: "These polls -- properly read -- indicate not only a Romney win, but a good-size Romney win," prompting further applause.

Morris, who was formerly a pollster, said one reason for inaccurate polling is that about 65 percent of those who answer surveys are women, while only 35 percent are men.

Why? "Women are much more likely to answer the telephone. 'Honey, it's for you. It's probably your sister.'"

So, he explained, the polls have to be weighted up and down -- with each woman downgraded to 7/10 of a response, because there are so many of them, and each man counting for one and 2/10, to make up for their statistical shortfall.

The implication of that comment, it seems, is that the over-representation of women in the polls hurts Romney, because presumably women are more supportive of Obama, though Morris didn't explicitly say that.

Continue reading for more photos and commentary from Morris on African-American and Latino voters.

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Sam Levin
Contact: Sam Levin