Coronavirus

Predicted New Colorado COVID Surge Is Building

The Trader Joe's at 661 Logan Street is experiencing its fourth COVID-19 outbreak.
The Trader Joe's at 661 Logan Street is experiencing its fourth COVID-19 outbreak. Google Maps
Last week, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment released a new modeling study from the Colorado School of Public Health and several other agencies showing that "COVID-19 transmission is on a relatively slow upward trend as indicated by percent positivity, wastewater concentration and hospitalizations," with admissions at medical facilities here expected to hit 500 or higher by the middle of June.

The latest statistics from the CDPHE suggest that this prediction is on point. COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations increased significantly over the past week, thanks largely to the Omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1, also known as Omicron 3. And while Colorado recently lifted the requirement that businesses and many other settings report infections spreading among staffers and others, the number of new or tweaked entries on the state health department's list of outbreaks is continuing to grow.

Here are the current COVID figures in major categories, as updated by the CDPHE after 4 p.m. May 18, along with information from our previous COVID data roundup, which drew from May 11 statistics:

1,414,790 cases (up 19,582 from May 11)
62,565 hospitalized (up 305 from May 11)
64 counties (unchanged from May 11)
12,516 deaths among cases (up 13 from May 11)
13,283 deaths due to COVID-19 (up 26 from May 11)
8,794 outbreaks (up 63 from May 11)

Four takeaways:

• At first glance, new cases appear to have more than doubled, going from 8,061 for the seven days ending May 11 to 19,582 on May 18. That total is actually inflated by the addition of 7,810 previous cases from what the CDPHE describes as "the winter Omicron surge." But subtracting the older infections still leaves a total of 11,772 new cases, which represent around a 31.5 percent week-over-week jump. And daily case counts have escalated in a big way: They were in the low hundreds back in March but have exceeded 1,000 every day since May 3, with 2,327 racked up on May 11 and 1,728 on May 18.

• New hospitalizations are on a similar trajectory. The 305 recorded during the seven days through May 18 blew past the 174 during the seven-day period ending May 11. Likewise, the average of 116 people hospitalized during the week of May 10 was dwarfed by the 144 for the week of May 17 — and the seven-day average for daily COVID admissions is currently at forty, more than double the fifteen calculated as recently as April 7.

• Fatality figures have risen as well, but not dramatically: 26 on May 17 versus 21 on May 11.

• The state's seven-day-average positivity rate of 8.68 percent on May 18 remains well above the 5 percent threshold the CDPHE prefers not to surpass. Meanwhile, COVID-19 samples sequenced by the department during the week of May 1, the most recent for which information is available, show that Omicron 2 accounted for 57.68 percent of cases, followed by Omicron 3 (39.52 percent) and Omicron 1 (just 1.66 percent), with "other" chipping in the additional 1.24 percent.

Outbreaks climbed from 57 new entries in the May 11 report to 62 added on May 18. The CDPHE is now focusing mostly on viral spread at health-care facilities (particularly those that specialize in senior care) and congregate living spaces likes jails, with less attention paid to schools and child-care facilities — but numerous sources have told Westword that most K-12 institutions have long since stopped reporting all but the most massive outbreaks. It's no surprise, then, that 47 of the new outbreaks fall in the health-care category, six more than a week earlier.

A few listings pertain to places that no longer have to inform the department about COVID-19 cases but have done so anyway. Among them is the Trader Joe's outlet at 661 Logan Street, which is experiencing its fourth outbreak; the previous ones happened in November 2020, March 2021 and November 2021. Other outbreak sites of note include the offices of Colorado PERA and the Newmont Corporation, plus a dorm at the Colorado School of Mines.

Here are the 62 new or tweaked active outbreaks identified by the CDPHE on May 18, along with the date when the outbreak was cited and the people impacted:

1. Adara Living (02R989): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Broomfield County, 5/12/2022, 2 resident cases, 1 staff case
2. Advanced Health Care of Aurora (02D982): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Arapahoe County, 5/12/2022, 4 resident cases, 2 staff cases
3. Allendale (050427): May 2022, Healthcare, Group Home, Jefferson County, 5/10/2022, 4 resident cases
4. Apple Store — Flatiron Crossing: May 2022, Retailer, Broomfield County, 5/10/2022, 6 staff cases
5. Ariel Clinical Services Day Program, Healthcare, Facility for Developmentally Disabled (Outpatient), Mesa County, 2 staff cases, 8 attendee cases
6. Aspen Park Montessori, Child Care Center, Jefferson County, 5/11/2022, 1 staff case, 6 attendee cases
7. Bear Creek Senior Living SNF (0205VM): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, El Paso County, 5/10/2022, 2 staff cases
8. Bell Middle School: May 2022, School, K-12, Jefferson County, 5/11/2022, 18 attendee cases
9. Belmont Lodge Healthcare Center (020619): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Pueblo County, 5/12/2022, 2 staff cases
10. Bent County Healthcare Center (020246): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Bent County, 5/13/2022, 3 staff cases
11. Boulder Shelter for the Homeless: May 2022, Homeless Shelter, Boulder County, 5/3/2022, 4 resident cases, 4 staff cases
12. Center at Rock Creek Assisted Living Facility (23D505): May 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Larimer County, 5/13/2022, 4 resident cases, 2 staff cases
13. Cherry Hills Assisted Living and Memory Care (23K182): May 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Arapahoe County, 5/16/2022, 6 resident cases, 2 staff cases
14. Clayton Group Home (05Y773): May 2022, Healthcare, Group Home, Adams County, 5/3/2022, 2 staff cases
15. Colorado Assisted Living Homes — Brandt (23Q272), Healthcare, Assisted Living, Jefferson County, 5/9/2022, 6 resident cases, 2 staff cases
16. Colorado Careassist Cascade Home (23G116): May 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, El Paso County, 5/6/2022, 3 resident cases
17. Colorado PERA: May 2022, Office/Indoor Workspace, Denver County, 5/13/2022, 5 staff cases
18. Colorado School of Mines — Morgan Hall, School/College Dorm, Jefferson County, 5/10/2022, 5 attendee cases
19. Denver Women's Correctional Facility: May 2022, State Prison, Denver County, 5/16/2022, 4 resident cases
20. Drake Middle School: May 2022, School, K-12, Jefferson County, 5/11/2022, 9 attendee cases
21. Eben Ezer Lutheran Care Center (020170): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Morgan County, 5/16/2022, 2 resident cases, 2 staff cases
22. Fairacres Manor, Inc. (020369): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Weld County, 5/5/2022, 2 staff cases
23. Forest Park Montessori School: May 2022, Child Care Center, Boulder County, 5/10/2022, 3 staff cases, 5 attendee cases
24. Frasier Meadows Health Care Center (020301): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Boulder County, 5/11/2022, 4 staff cases
25. Frasier Meadows Manor Inc. Assisted Living Center (23J640): May 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Boulder County, 5/11/2022, 2 resident cases, 3 staff cases
26. Free Horizon Montessori: May 2022, Child Care Center, Jefferson County, 5/17/2022, 3 staff cases, 4 attendee cases
27. Golden Gate Manor II (230654), Healthcare, Assisted Living, Pueblo County, 5/11/2022, 4 resident cases
28. Good Samaritan Society Water Valley Senior Living Resort (23V721): May 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Weld County, 5/6/2022, 2 staff cases
29. Good Samaritan Society — Loveland Village (020366): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Larimer County, 4/22/2022, 2 staff cases
30. HighPointe Assisted Living & Memory Care (23M205): May 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Denver County, 5/11/2022, 12 resident cases, 3 staff cases
31. Hillcrest of Loveland (23E476): May 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Larimer County, 5/11/2022, 12 resident cases, 7 staff cases
32. Katherine & Charles Hover Green Houses (02F918): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Boulder County, 5/16/2022, 2 staff cases
33. Life Care Center of Colorado Springs (0205X1): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, El Paso County, 5/9/2022, 1 resident case, 4 staff cases
34. Life Care Center of Evergreen (020490): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Jefferson County, 5/4/2022, 2 staff cases
35. Modena Cherry Creek (23P249): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Arapahoe County, 4/14/2022, 9 resident cases, 4 staff cases
36. MorningStar of Arvada (23T231): May 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Jefferson County, 5/11/2022, 2 resident cases, 1 staff case
37. Namaste Alzheimer's Center (020518): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, El Paso County, 4/27/2022, 3 staff cases
38. New Explorer's Learning Center, Child Care Center, Boulder County, 5/10/2022, 3 staff cases, 8 attendee cases
39. Newmont Corporation, Office/Indoor Workspace, Denver County, 5/10/2022, 5 staff cases
40. Northpoint Recovery: May 2022, Healthcare, Alcohol/Drug Abuse Treatment (Inpatient), Larimer County, 5/11/2022, 11 resident cases, 10 staff cases
41. Parkwood Estates: May 2022, Healthcare, Independent Living Facility, Larimer County, 5/11/2022, 7 resident cases, 3 staff cases
42. Pinnacle Women's Healthcare at Parker, Healthcare, Outpatient OBGYN, Douglas County, 5/17/2022, 6 staff cases
43. Promedica Skilled Nursing and Rehabilitation (020476): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Denver County, 5/16/2022, 1 resident case, 2 staff cases
44. Pueblo County Detention Center: May 2022, Jail, Pueblo County, 5/11/2022, 28 resident cases, 1 staff case
45. Ralston Elementary School: May 2022, School, K-12, Jefferson County, 5/11/2022, 1 staff case, 5 attendee cases
46. St Andrews Village — Independent Living: April 2022, Healthcare, Independent Living Facility, Arapahoe County, 5/17/2022, 8 staff cases
47. St Julien Hotel & Spa: May 2022, Hotel/Lodge/Resort, Boulder County, 5/17/2022, 5 staff cases
48. St Paul Health Center (020448): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Denver County, 5/4/2022, 3 staff cases
49. STEM School Highlands Ranch: April 2022, School, K-12, Douglas County, 5/17/2022, 6 staff cases, 23 attendee cases
50. Sterling Health and Rehabilitation Center (020165): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Logan County, 5/17/2022, 2 resident cases
51. Sunrise at Cherry Creek (2304OU): May 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Denver County, 5/5/2022, 7 staff cases
52. The Academy Bella Vista (23R666): May 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Boulder County, 5/5/2022, 1 resident case, 6 staff cases
53. The Lodge at Greeley (23R710): May 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Weld County, 5/6/2022, 5 resident cases, 3 staff cases
54. The Rehabilitation Center at Sandalwood (020465): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Jefferson County, 4/25/2022, 1 resident case, 2 staff cases
55. The Retreat at Harbor Cove (23114D): May 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Mesa County, 5/9/2022, 5 staff cases
56. The Sunshine House Fort Collins — CSU Campus West: May 2022, Child Care Center, Larimer County, 5/11/2022, 2 staff cases, 8 attendee cases
57. Trader Joe's #302: May 2022, Grocery Store, Denver, 5/10/2022, 6 staff cases
58. Uptown Health Care Center (020452): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Denver County, 5/2/2022, 2 staff cases
59. Valley Manor Care Center (021172): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Montrose County, 5/11/2022, 2 staff cases
60. Western Hills Health Care Center (020438): May 2022, Healthcare, Skilled Nursing, Jefferson County, 5/4/2022, 16 resident cases, 7 staff cases
61. William B Forward (0504FJ), Healthcare, Group Home, Jefferson County, 5/9/2022, 2 resident cases, 2 staff cases
62. Wind Crest: April 2022, Healthcare, Independent Living Facility, Douglas County, 5/11/2022, 30 resident cases, 1 staff case
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Michael Roberts has written for Westword since October 1990, serving stints as music editor and media columnist. He currently covers everything from breaking news and politics to sports and stories that defy categorization.
Contact: Michael Roberts