Mike Coffman could be in serious trouble.
The Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), the fundraising arm of Republicans in Congress, is pulling funds from Republican Coffman's re-election campaign for the 6th Congressional District, a seat he's held for five terms, Politico first reported on September 28.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released earlier this month showed Coffman trailing Democratic challenger Jason Crow by eleven points, a whopping number that raised eyebrows not just in this state, but across the country. From a GOP perspective, the most alarming stat in that poll showed Coffman trailing Crow by a nearly twenty-vote margin among independent voters.
Independent voters constitute a plurality of the vote in CO-6, where registered Democrats slightly outnumber registered Republicans.
According to the Politico report, $2.8 million in TV advertising had been reserved by the CLF on Coffman's behalf. If that buy is pulled, it will take away a large swath of Coffman's possible air time. Despite the ominous news, though, Coffman's campaign is far from calling it quits.
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"We polled the race in the last two weeks, and even assuming a worst-case scenario turnout advantage for Democrats, we were down one point," Coffman's campaign manager, Tyler Sandberg, says in an email to Westword. "Bear in mind — this looks like every poll we have ever fielded plus or minus 2-3 points in either direction. We could give two shits if some surrender monkey in DC thinks that Coffman can win. We have a plan to win this thing. "
Coffman won re-election in this swingy suburban district by about eight percentage points in November 2016, but the district also voted for Hillary Clinton at the presidential level by nine points — indicating the difficulty of Coffman's challenge winning re-election as a Republican incumbent in a Clinton-voting district, given President Donald Trump's dwindling popularity in this rapidly growing area with a high immigrant population.
"Jason's focused on running a strong campaign to bring a new generation of servant leadership to Congress," Crow campaign spokesman Mitch Schwartz says in an email to Westword. "The campaign for Mike Coffman, crystalized by CLF’s disgraceful and dishonest attacks against a combat veteran and Bronze Star recipient, clearly backfired and Coloradans are glad to see them go."
The 6th Congressional District includes parts of Adams, Douglas and Arapahoe counties, and it's considered one of the key swing districts in the country, one that could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the House of Representatives for the next two years.