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COVID-19 in Colorado Getting Out of Control, New Data Shows

The emergency room entrance to St. Anthony hospital in Lakewood.
The emergency room entrance to St. Anthony hospital in Lakewood.
Google Maps

The latest data from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment regarding the COVID-19 crisis depicts a rapidly deteriorating situation in the state, with hospitalizations topping 1,100 for the first time, daily cases regularly soaring over the 3,000 mark, and a positivity rate more than double the level established as a warning sign by the World Health Organization.

The CDPHE figures were updated at 4 p.m. on November 8. Here are the stats in major categories compared to those from November 1:

130,984 cases (up 21,074 from November 1)
10,107 hospitalized (up 1,018 from November 1)
64 counties (unchanged from November 1)
2,394 deaths among cases (up 106 from November 1)
2,168 deaths due to COVID-19 (up 63 from November 1)
1,408 outbreaks (up 192 from November 1)

Some additional takeaways:

• The increase of 21,000-plus new cases in a week is unprecedented.
• A hospitalization jump of more than 1,000 in seven days has never been recorded before, either.
• Despite therapeutics that have improved enormously since this past spring, weekly deaths from and with COVID-19 are at a point not seen in months.
• The pace of outbreaks doesn't appear to be slowing. Note that 197 new outbreaks were identified in a record-shattering November 4 report from the CDPHE.

The all-time daily case-count high of 3,291 was recorded on November 4, and the cases counted over the next two days were nearly as stratospheric before November 7, which experienced the typical weekend dip. Even so, the totals recorded over the ten-day span recapped below are five-to-six times higher than they were just a month earlier; on October 4, the number of new cases reported was just 532.

November 7 — 2,766
November 6 — 3,235
November 5 — 3,256
November 4 — 3,291
November 3 — 2,866
November 2 — 2,515
November 1 — 2,336
October 31 — 2,586
October 30 — 2,756
October 29 — 2,394

The positivity rate for Colorado — defined Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins as "the percentage of all coronavirus tests performed that are actually positive, or: (positive tests)/(total tests) x 100 percent"— is experiencing the same sort of pressure. The WHO considers any rate over 5 percent per 100,000 people to be a red line — and this state's is now at 12.11 percent. The outpatient syndromic visits for COVID-19 of 17.37 percent per 100,000 people over the previous week is even more worrisome.

Hospitalization data offers no relief. The state exceeded 1,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations for the first time on November 5, and it continues to push in the wrong direction. On November 8, patients admitted for the novel coronavirus reached 1,134 — the most since 1,217, on April 17. But this last comparison is a bit misleading: On April 17, only 878 of the 1,217 patients had a confirmed case of COVID-19, as compared to 1,023 on November 8. Meanwhile, the average of new hospital admissions by day has gone from 99 to 133.

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Here are the metrics over the last ten days:

Patients Currently Hospitalized for COVID-19

November 8, 2020
1,134 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
1,023 (90 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
111 (10 percent) Persons Under Investigation

November 7, 2020
1,087 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
981 (90 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
106 (10 percent) Persons Under Investigation

November 6, 2020
1,041 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
936 (90 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
105 (10 percent) Persons Under Investigation

November 5, 2020
1,016 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
894 (88 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
122 (12 percent) Persons Under Investigation

November 4, 2020
970 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
847 (87 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
123 (13 percent) Persons Under Investigation

November 3, 2020
925 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
814 (88 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
111 (12 percent) Persons Under Investigation

November 2, 2020
858 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
755 (88 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
103 (12 percent) Persons Under Investigation

November 1, 2020
788 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
686 (87 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
102 (13 percent) Persons Under Investigation

October 31, 2020
788 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
687 (87 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
101 (13 percent) Persons Under Investigation

October 30, 2020
781 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
663 (85 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
118 (15 percent) Persons Under Investigation

New Hospital Admissions by Admission Date

November 7, 2020
129 patients admitted to the hospital
133 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

November 6, 2020
154 patients admitted to the hospital
134 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

November 5, 2020
147 patients admitted to the hospital
127 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

November 4, 2020
132 patients admitted to the hospital
122 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

November 3, 2020
141 patients admitted to the hospital
121 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

November 2, 2020
145 patients admitted to the hospital
112 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

November 1, 2020
82 patients admitted to the hospital
101 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

October 31, 2020
138 patients admitted to the hospital
100 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

October 30, 2020
107 patients admitted to the hospital
96 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

October 29, 2020
112 patients admitted to the hospital
92 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital 

Municipalities across Colorado have taken actions just shy of stay-at-home orders in an effort to bend the epidemiological curve back in a more positive direction, as exemplified by Denver's Home by 10 order.

But harsher tactics could come soon, since COVID-19 in Colorado appears to be spiraling out of control.

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