Is Colorado Seeing Omicron Variant's Last Gasp?

The latest COVID-19 statistics from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment show significant declines in most areas. The numbers suggest that the Omicron variant of the disease, which led to an enormous surge of cases, hospitalizations and outbreaks beginning in late 2021, may be running out of steam.

Here's the COVID data in major categories, as updated by the CDPHE after 4 p.m. February 22,  juxtaposed with information from our previous COVID data roundup, which drew from February 14 figures. Because of a 24-hour delay related to the Presidents' Day holiday, the gap between the two data dumps was eight days rather than the usual week.

1,306,684 cases (up 13,590 from February 14)
28,050 variants of concern (up 781 from February 14)
64 counties (unchanged from February 14)
59,559 hospitalizations (up 724 from February 14)
11,705 deaths among cases (up 71 from February 14)
12,376 deaths due to COVID-19 (up 264 from February 14)
8,298 outbreaks (up 70 from February 14)

Four takeaways:

• The number of new COVID cases in Colorado dropped from 16,116 for the week ending February 14 to 13,590 on February 22. That's a decrease of more than 2,000 cases, despite the additional day in the most recent count. While the official tally doesn't include a large number of infections that go unreported, as the CDPHE admits, the new stat still reflects a substantial improvement.

• New hospitalizations also fell, from 858 on February 14 to 724 on February 22.

• Outbreaks are slowing, too, going from 85 new citations on February 14 to 70 by February 22.

• Newly confirmed deaths attributed to COVID-19, which had remained high even as other figures tumbled, went from 304 the week ending February 14 to 264 over the subsequent eight days.

The improvement in new daily COVID case counts is even more striking. Eight of the ten days between February 4 and February 13 exceeded 1,000, with one more than triple that. In contrast, the February 12-21 period was marked by just four days with a new count over 1,000, and the tally on February 21 was just 374. The progress is documented below:

February 21 — 374 Cases
February 20 — 419 Cases
February 19 — 660 Cases
February 18 — 791 Cases
February 17 — 1,189 Cases
February 16 — 1,356 Cases
February 15 — 1,763 Cases
February 14 — 988 Cases
February 13 — 677 Cases
February 12 — 1,108 Cases

The Omicron strain remains dominant in Colorado, turning up in 100 percent of the samples sequenced by the CDPHE for the week ending February 6, the most recent for which figures are available. Meanwhile, the state's positivity rate tumbled from 9.12 percent on February 14 to 6.34 on February 21 — and the seven-day average sits at 5.17 percent, the closest it's been in weeks to the 5 percent level that state health officials prefer to stay under. And while fewer ICU beds are available statewide this week (189 on February 14, compared to 181 on February 22), the situation is nowhere near a crisis level.

In fact, new hospital admissions for COVID-19 have receded from a seven-day average of 66 on February 14 to 40 eight days later, and the overall number of patients hospitalized for the disease dropped by more than 250 over the most recent ten days. Here's the rundown:

New Hospital Admissions by Admission Date

February 22, 2022
50 patients admitted to the hospital
40 seven-day average patients admitted to the hospital

February 21, 2022
23 patients admitted to the hospital
40 seven-day average patients admitted to the hospital

February 20, 2022
33 patients admitted to the hospital
40 seven-day average patients admitted to the hospital

February 19, 2022
42 patients admitted to the hospital
42 seven-day average patients admitted to the hospital

February 18, 2022
28 patients admitted to the hospital
47 seven-day average patients admitted to the hospital

February 17, 2022
42 patients admitted to the hospital
52 seven-day average patients admitted to the hospital

February 16, 2022
62 patients admitted to the hospital
60 seven-day average patients admitted to the hospital

February 15, 2022
49 patients admitted to the hospital
68 seven-day average patients admitted to the hospital

February 14, 2022
21 patients admitted to the hospital
71 seven-day average patients admitted to the hospital

February 13, 2022
48 patients admitted to the hospital
82 seven-day average patients admitted to the hospital

Patients Currently Hospitalized for COVID-19

February 22, 2022
523 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
446 (85 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
77 (15 percent) Persons Under Investigation

February 21, 2022
522 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
471 (90 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
51 (10 percent) Persons Under Investigation

February 20, 2022
558 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
515 (92 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
43 (8 percent) Persons Under Investigation

February 19, 2022
556 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
514 (92 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
42 (8 percent) Persons Under Investigation

February 18, 2022
581 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
536 (92 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
45 (8 percent) Persons Under Investigation

February 17, 2022
611 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
563 (92 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
48 (8 percent) Persons Under Investigation

February 16, 2022
704 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
641 (91 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
63 (9 percent) Persons Under Investigation

February 15, 2022
706 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
645 (91 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
61 (9 percent) Persons Under Investigation

February 14, 2022
766 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
705 (92 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
61 (8 percent) Persons Under Investigation

February 13, 2022
792 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
743 (94 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
49 (6 percent) Persons Under Investigation

Also slowing, though, is the pace of immunizations, documented on the CDPHE's vaccine data dashboard. The number of people fully immunized against COVID-19 in Colorado rose by 10,299 over the eight days ending February 21, but had climbed 12,698 over the week ending February 13 — and that was a relative blip compared to the 60,473-person bump on January 31. The latest stats:

3,950,708 people fully immunized in Colorado (up 10,299 from February 13)
4,411,073 people immunized with at least one dose (up 10,825 from February 13)
486 people vaccinated on February 21 with Pfizer vaccine (up 362 from February 13); 609 immunizations with Pfizer vaccine reported February 21 but administered on an earlier date (up 358 from February 13)
558 people immunized on February 21 with Moderna vaccine (up 337 from February 13); 788 immunizations with Moderna vaccine reported February 21 but administered on an earlier date (up 143 from February 13)
48 people vaccinated on February 21 with Janssen (J&J) vaccine (up 26 from February 13); 56 immunizations with Janssen vaccine reported February 21 but administered on an earlier date (up 28 from February 13)

One more trend of note: The number of vaccinated people hospitalized for COVID continues to go up, rising from 35 percent on February 14 to 38 percent on February 22 — and if a new variant supplants Omicron, other decreasing stats could trend up again.