But the latest data from the CDPHE, which continues to improve, shows why Polis is taking the gamble.
Here are the stats in major categories, as updated at 4:30 p.m. on January 3; we've juxtaposed them with the December 13 figures from our last COVID-19 weekly numbers roundup:
341,250 cases (up 53,057 from December 13)Four major takeaways:
18,713 hospitalized (up 2,587 from December 13)
64 counties (unchanged from December 13)
4,934 deaths among cases (up 976 from December 13)
3,907 deaths due to COVID-19 (up 895 from December 13)
3,053 outbreaks (up 439 from December 13)
Cases have climbed by an average of 17,686 a week over the past 21 days. That's down significantly from the 27,612 increase between December 6 and December 13.
The same scenario can be seen in hospitalization numbers. The average over the last three weeks was 862 a week, considerably smaller than the bump of 1,258 from December 6 to December 13.
The changes in virus deaths is more of a mixed message. Deaths among COVID-19 cases are down from 502 between December 6 and December 13 to an average of 325 weekly through January 3. But the pace of deaths directly caused by the disease — the most important statistic, albeit one that lags behind the others — is up slightly, from 288 over the December 6 to13 period to an average of 298 per week since then.
On the positive side, the fearsome rate of outbreaks has fallen considerably, from 228 from December 6 to 13 to an average of 146 each week up to January 3.
The daily new COVID-19 case totals over the past ten days have vacillated, with big numbers right before Christmas and New Year's Day and lower ones since:
January 2 — 1,749Shifts in Colorado's seven-day average positivity rate, defined by the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins as "the percentage of all coronavirus tests performed that are actually positive, or: (positive tests)/(total tests) x 100 percent," are easier to interpret. The metric currently stands at 7.67 percent, down from 8.91 percent on December 13. And outpatient syndromic COVID-19 visits have plummeted: They had skyrocketed to 20.85 percent on November 29 before sliding to 6.35 percent on December 13 — and as of January 3, they're calculated at 4.42 percent.
January 1 — 1,823
December 31 — 2,531
December 30 — 2,636
December 29 — 2,005
December 28 — 1,341
December 27 — 1,704
December 26 — 1,421
December 25 — 1,230
December 24 — 2,646
The hospitalization news is even better. Fewer than 1,000 patients requiring COVID-19 care were registered at such facilities as of January 3 — down more than 600 from December 13. And new daily admissions are under 100 — a far cry from 141 on December 13 and 264 on December 4.
Here are the hospitalization stats for the last ten days:
Patients Currently Hospitalized for COVID-19This data could take a turn for the worse as January marches on. But the lack of a feared post-Thanksgiving mega-spike offers hope that counties now switched from Level Red to Level Orange may be able to avoid a return to their old status over the next few weeks.
January 3, 2021
991 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
908 (92 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
January 2, 2021
1,016 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
918 (90 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
January 1, 2021
1,044 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
952 (91 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
December 31, 2020
1,086 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
989 (91 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
December 30, 2020
1,150 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
1,045 (91 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
December 29, 2020
1,188 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
1,086 (91 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
December 28, 2020
1,173 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
1,094 (93 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
December 27, 2020
1,186 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
1,091 (92 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
December 26, 2020
1,168 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
1,110 (95 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
December 25, 2020
1,169 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
1,091 (93 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
New Hospital Admissions by Admission Date
January 3, 2021
78 patients admitted to the hospital
108 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital
January 2, 2021
83 patients admitted to the hospital
116 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital
January 1, 2021
95 patients admitted to the hospital
128 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital
December 31, 2020
93 patients admitted to the hospital
131 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital
December 30, 2020
139 patients admitted to the hospital
141 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital
December 29, 2020
125 patients admitted to the hospital
143 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital
December 28, 2020
140 patients admitted to the hospital
151 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital
December 27, 2020
137 patients admitted to the hospital
149 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital
December 26, 2020
170 patients admitted to the hospital
150 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital
December 25, 2020
114 patients admitted to the hospital
151 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital