Broncos Playoffs Preview: What You Need to Know Before the Big Game Against the Bills

On Saturday, January 17, the Denver Broncos will meet the Buffalo Bills in a playoffs scrum that’s easily one of the most anticipated matchups in recent Colorado history. But will the game at Empower Field be a thrilling success or a heart-wrenching nightmare? No one knows yet, but it’s important to be prepared for either eventuality. Here’s what you need to know prior to kickoff.

Betting Odds Are Not in the Broncos’ Favor

The lords of Las Vegas are not believers in the Denver Broncos chances to win a single game this postseason, let alone the Super Bowl. Wagering odds change depending on the day, time, service and barometric pressure (probably), but as of Tuesday January 13, BetMGM had declared the Broncos a 1.5-point home underdog to the Bills.

Meanwhile, Buffalo stood at +240 to win the AFC Championship game, just behind the New England Patriots, at +230, while Denver malingered at +280, a +40 boost over the previous 24 hours. And Buffalo was an even clearer favorite over Denver to host the Lombardi Trophy, too: On Tuesday, the Bills stood at +550, as opposed to the Broncos’ +750, up +50 from the day before.

Both of the latter figures were well behind those notched by the Super Bowl pacesetters, the Seattle Seahawks, at +300. But they speak volumes about how little respect the Broncos have garnered among members of the gambling class. They may have secured the number one seed in the AFC by virtue of a league best 14-3 record (the same mark as the Seahawks), but they haven’t managed to find a spot in the heart of many bookmakers.

Hailee Steinfeld, Allen’s very pregnant celebrity wife, couldn’t praise the Bills QB any more comprehensively than the so-called experts in the prognostication business. No wonder such a large chunk of America is expecting the Broncos to gag.

So…does Denver have any chance at victory?. Sure — but the following list of the pros and cons illustrate why either triumph or tragedy could easily happen on Saturday.

Five Reasons the Broncos Win

1. The defense is no joke. Patrick Surtain II, the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, remains the finest cover corner in football, and even though his opposite number, Riley Moss, couldn’t have received more penalties for pass interference if he’d slept with the spouses of every referee, he’s much better than his reputation would imply. The rest of the secondary — P.J. Locke, ballhawk Ja’Quan McMillian and Talanoa Hufanga, the crew’s single most impactful addition — regularly delivers a similar amount of pain.

   If Nik Bonitto gets the lion’s share of passing-rushing pressure, for reasons that have everything to do with his incredible speed and gravity-defying skill at turning the corner when practically parallel to the turf, D-linemen such as Zach Allen, John Franklin-Myers and Malcolm Roach are positively fearsome as well.

2. The offense isn’t always offensive. In his second year, Denver quarterback Bo Nix has been frustratingly inconsistent, but he’s played well enough to keep the Broncos in every game this season. Rookie running back R.J. Harvey hasn’t made fans forget about J.K. Dobbins, his ultra-talented but regularly injured backfield pal (who, surprise, surprise, is currently hurt and won’t be in uniform this weekend), but Harvey has a knack for finding the end zone (ten TDs this campaign to date).

   Fellow RB Jaleel McLaughlin has provided some fine change-of-pace punch of late, too, and lead receiver Courtland Sutton is no longer the only big-play option thanks to the emergence of wide-out Pat Bryant and steady growth from Troy Franklin, rising tight end Evan Engram and gadget-friendly Marvin Mims Jr. They’re not always the most impressive herd, but the Broncos do have some horses.

3. Playing at home is a definite advantage. Denver is 8-1 this season at Empower Field, with the only loss coming at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars on December 21 — and, frankly, that defeat served as a welcome wake-up call. Given that Denver hasn’t hosted a playoff game since its last Super Bowl season, expect the crowd to create a racket somewhere between deafening and “Is that blood or brain matter dripping out of my ears?”
4. The Broncos have learned how to win the close ones. After two early losses in the final seconds, Denver came out on top in its next eleven (!) one-possession faceoffs. Granted, blow-outs would have caused a lot less angina among citizens of Broncos Country. But those who see this streak as a stealth sign of weakness are dead wrong.
5. The Bills are depleted. Key Buffalo players who won’t compete on Saturday include wide receivers Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers (torn ACLs) and safety Jordan Poyer (hamstring), and defensive lineman Ed Oliver is unlikely to be at 100 percent if he’s cleared to take part. Allen, for his part, has been battered of late and is dealing with issues involving his right foot, his right knee and a finger on his right hand. Might that mean he won’t be, well, right? Maybe — and you can bet the Denver defense would love to add to his misery.

Five Reasons the Bill Win

1. Josh Allen. All that worshipful blather about him is justified. When the Bills drafted him following his stint at the University of Wyoming, he was a physical specimen but not a passing savant; when he wound up to throw, he was as likely to hit a concessionaire in the stands as his intended target. Lousy aim is seldom curable for a quarterback, but Allen was the exception to the rule. He rapidly improved his accuracy and is now an absolutely lethal sharpshooter in addition to being a brutal threat with his legs.
2. Josh Allen. He’s not the only good player on his team — running back James Cook is performing at his peak and definitely give the Broncos migraines — but he’s still far and away the best his franchise has to offer. True, it’s tough for one person to win singlehandedly, especially in a sport with so many bodies colliding every second. But John Elway managed to get second-rate units to the Super Bowl three times by more or less carrying everyone else on his back. Allen is totally capable of doing that.
3. Josh Allen. Do you remember what Allen did to the Broncos when they met in the playoffs last year? The final score was 31-7, and it wasn’t actually that close.
4. Josh Allen. Denver could have drafted Allen. In 2018, the Broncos had the number five pick, and Allen was sitting there when the aforementioned John Elway chose instead to select defensive lineman Bradley Chubb, who isn’t even on the roster anymore. Buffalo grabbed Allen at number seven, and you know how the rest of the story goes.
5. Josh Allen. We can elaborate on the points above and sketch out a whole bunch more, but that wouldn’t be pleasant for anyone.

Who’s Getting the W?

Hell if we know, but there’s one certainty: Broncos loyalists already worried about the team getting to the Super Bowl and then being humiliated before the entire sporting world are getting waaaaay ahead of themselves. If such premature concerns become genuine worries, that’s a great problem to have.

How to Watch the Game

The Broncos-Bills contest is slated to get underway shortly after 2:30 p.m. local time on Saturday, January 17. Television traditionalists can tune in via CBS, the official network broadcaster, but more modern sorts have plenty of additional options. The bout will be streamed on Paramount+ and can also be consumed on YouTube TV, Hulu+ Live TV, Fubo and NFL+ Premium.

And if you’re in transit on Saturday afternoon, set your ride’s dial to 850 KOA locally or Westwood One nationally. That way, you can listen to the play-by-play while bellyaching about the refs to your hearts content. In a 1999 Honda Accord, no one can hear you scream.