Colorado COVID-19 Data Much Worse, Deniers Don't Care

The latest data from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment about COVID-19 is startlingly bad, with third-wave case numbers close to triple those of the first two waves, and hospitalizations at a point not seen since April. But even with Denver and Adams counties now classified as high-risk areas and several other municipalities flirting with a potential stay-at-home designation, a percentage of the populace spent this weekend engaging in pandemic-defying behavior, including a so-called "MAGA Drag the Interstate" rally and Halloween parties allegedly involving scads of University of Colorado Boulder students.

Here are the figures in major categories as updated by the CDPHE at 4 p.m. yesterday, November 1:

109,910 cases (up 14,821 from October 25)
9,089 hospitalized (up 467 from October 25)
64 counties (unchanged from October 25)
2,288 deaths among cases (up 65 from October 25)
2,105 deaths due to COVID-19 (up 29 from October 25)
1,216 outbreaks (up 159 from October 25)

Some additional context for these stats:

• Cases have climbed by 47,000-plus since September 13, more than 40 percent of the overall total since the pandemic began.
• Hospital admissions for COVID-19 since September 13 are nearing 2,000.
• Between September 13 and this weekend, more than 200 Coloradans have died as a direct result of the virus.
• The 156 outbreaks designated during the past seven days suggest that the state will release another record-breaking weekly outbreak list on November 4. The total on the most recent weekly report, issued October 28, was 129.

As for case counts, the daily peak during the virus's first wave was 967 on April 23, while the second wave crested at 869 on July 27. Contrast those amounts with the 2,686 cases on October 30 and the 2,497 on October 31, which are roughly three times the second-wave high point and well over double the one from the initial viral onslaught.

For a better sense of the recent rise, here are the case counts from the previous ten days:

October 31 — 2497
October 30 — 2686
October 29 — 2344
October 28 — 1644
October 27 — 1200
October 26 — 1279
October 25 — 2154
October 24 — 1658
October 23 — 1716
October 22 — 1399

The state's positivity rate is also skyrocketing. The World Health Organization considers a 5 percent rate per 100,000 people to be a cause for alarm; Colorado's is now at 9.76 percent, up 1.85 percent. In addition, the previous week's outpatient syndromic COVID-19 visits registered at 14.96 percent.

The uptick in hospitalization statistics, which tend to lag behind cases because of the disease's incubation period, are just as troubling. From October 16 to October 25, the number of patients hospitalized for the virus ranged from 428 to 599; for the ten-day period ending on November 1, the range was 550 to 788. And the average of new hospital admissions by day has jumped from 80 to 99, paced by 133 on October 31.

Continue to see those numbers:

Patients Currently Hospitalized for COVID-19

November 1, 2020
788 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
686 (87 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
102 (13 percent) Persons Under Investigation

October 31, 2020
788 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
687 (87 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
101 (13 percent) Persons Under Investigation

October 30, 2020
781 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
663 (85 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
118 (15 percent) Persons Under Investigation

October 29, 2020
742 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
622 (84 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
120 (16 percent) Persons Under Investigation

October 28, 2020
721 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
596 (83 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
125 (17 percent) Persons Under Investigation

October 27, 2020
648 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
538 (83 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
110 (17 percent) Persons Under Investigation

October 26, 2020
591 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
513 (87 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
78 (13 percent) Persons Under Investigation

October 25, 2020
586 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
515 (88 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
71 (12 percent) Persons Under Investigation

October 24, 2020
599 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
507 (85 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
92 (15 percent) Persons Under Investigation

October 23, 2020
550 Total COVID Patients (Confirmed & Suspected/PUI)
458 (83 percent) Confirmed COVID-19
92 (17 percent) Persons Under Investigation

New Hospital Admissions by Admission Date

November 1, 2020
74 patients admitted to the hospital
93 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

October 31, 2020
133 patients admitted to the hospital
93 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

October 30, 2020
98 patients admitted to the hospital
90 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

October 29, 2020
102 patients admitted to the hospital
87 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

October 28, 2020
114 patients admitted to the hospital
81 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

October 27, 2020
74 patients admitted to the hospital
78 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

October 26, 2020
58 patients admitted to the hospital
84 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

October 25, 2020
75 patients admitted to the hospital
88 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

October 24, 2020
106 patients admitted to the hospital
87 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

October 23, 2020
83 patients admitted to the hospital
76 seven-day average of patients admitted to the hospital

According to the CDPHE, its epidemiological modeling contends that "Colorado will likely exceed the April peak in hospitalizations within two weeks. If the epidemic curve is not bent, Colorado could surpass intensive care unit (ICU) capacity in January. If contacts increase over the holidays (for example, due to gatherings between multiple households), ICU capacity could be exceeded in December."

Such warnings didn't prevent Bandimere Speedway — whose Fourth of July fireworks show and September COVID-Chaos get-together largely eschewed mask use and social distancing (the track's owners have filed a lawsuit against the state over its health orders) — from serving as the staging area for the MAGA Drag the Interstate event. Facial coverings and other safety protocols appear to have been rarities even before drivers hit the road. The result was essentially an enormous act of denial on wheels.

By the way, Bandimere is located in Jefferson County, which is listed at Safer at Home Level 2 (Concern) on the CDPHE's COVID-19 dial. However, Jeffco is already under a mandate to enforce stricter guidelines, and its two-week cumulative incidence rate of the virus stands at 383.3 per 100,000, which qualifies for Stay at Home (Severe). No wonder that on October 30, the county issued a new public-health order limiting most outdoor events to 75 people — which Bandimere likely exceeded by thousands.

Meanwhile, authorities in Boulder County reportedly shut down numerous Halloween bashes, with Denver7 noting that participants were partying like it's 2019.

Which didn't seem to be that great of a year. But in retrospect, it was nirvana.