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COVID-19: Odds of You Dying in Colorado From the Virus

COVID-19: Odds of You Dying in Colorado From the Virus
@forrestlsmith

Your odds of dying from COVID-19 in Colorado remain very small if you're under 30, 40 or even 50, though they've risen slightly in each category over recent months. Your chances also go up if you're Hispanic or, even more dramatically, Black.

Those are some of the key takeaways from the latest demographic information about the novel coronavirus from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment. The numbers are particularly telling when juxtaposed against those highlighted in our May 26 post on the subject, headlined "Why So Many Coloradans Under 50 Don't Take Virus Seriously."

People under 40 certainly accounted for many more cases during the week of September 20, the most recent period for which CDPHE data is available, than on May 25. Here are the statistics, compared:

0-19 years of age
27.09 percent of all cases during the week of September 20
6.47 percent of all cases on May 25

20-39 years of age
38.56 percent of all cases during the week of September 20
32.87 percent of all cases on May 25

For the week of September 20, other demographic divisions accounted for a smaller slice of the COVID-19 total than did either of these categories: 23.48 percent of all cases were people between 40 and 59 years old, 9.37 percent of all cases were individuals between 60 and 79 years old, and 1.35 percent of all cases for people age 80 and above.

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Lethality is another matter. No Colorado resident under the age of 10 has died from COVID-19 to date, and the updated percentages adding up to the current total of 1,945 deaths from the virus remain fractional for everyone under 40. Here are the figures from September 28:

0-9: 0.0 percent of all deaths

10-19: .15 percent of all deaths

20-29: .73 percent of all deaths

30-39: .88 percent of all deaths

40-49: 2.94 percent of all deaths

50-59: 6.71 percent of all deaths

60-69: 12.35 percent of all deaths

70-79: 23.22 percent of all deaths

80-plus: 53.01 percent of all deaths

The number of deaths from COVID-19 in Colorado has fallen substantially since the institution of the stay-at-home order and mandating of public-health protocols such as mask usage and social distancing.EXPAND
The number of deaths from COVID-19 in Colorado has fallen substantially since the institution of the stay-at-home order and mandating of public-health protocols such as mask usage and social distancing.

Early in the pandemic, the CDPHE routinely divulged the number of deaths per demographic category. On May 25, they stood at zero for children under 10, two for those between 10 and 19, eight for ages 20 to 29, also eight between 30 and 39, and 33 from 40 to 49.

Now, however, the department offers only percentages, necessitating estimates based on the fatality total of 1,945. As of September 28, they translate to just over 32 deaths for those under 40, or 1.76 percent, approximately ninety deaths for those under 50, or 4.64 percent, around 221 deaths for those under 60, or 11.35 percent, and a tragic 1,721 deaths for those 60 and above, or 88.58 percent.

The 1.76 percent of deaths for people under 40 is up from 1.35 percent on May 25. Likewise, the 4.64 percent of deaths among people under 50 has risen from 3.83 percent in late May. But the risk for older Coloradans remains much higher.

As for racial demographics, the groups whose percentage of deaths exceeds their part of the population include American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Hispanics and Black or African American. The latter group accounts for more than 6 percent of the deaths, even though its percentage of Colorado's population is under 4 percent. Whites, for their part, represent the lion's share of deaths, but considerably fewer than their percentage of the population would imply. Here are the details:

American Indian or Alaska Native
Deaths: 0.69 percent of all cases
Percent of Colorado Population: 0.56 percent

Asian
Deaths: 3.18 percent of all cases
Percent of Colorado Population: 3.12 percent

Multiple races, Non-Hispanic
Deaths: 1.42 percent of all cases
Percent of Colorado Population: 2.65 percent

Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander
Deaths: 0.34 percent of all cases
Percent of Colorado Population: 0.12 percent

Other
Deaths: 0.49 percent of all cases
Percent of Colorado Population: 0.19 percent

Black or African American
Deaths: 6.32 percent of all cases
Percent of Colorado Population: 3.92 percent

White-Non-Hispanic
Deaths: 62.42 percent of all cases
Percent of Colorado Population: 67.76 percent

Hispanic, All Races
Deaths: 23.27 percent of all cases
Percent of Colorado Population: 21.69 percent

Unknown
Deaths: 1.86 percent of all cases
Percent of Colorado Population: 0.00 percent 

With the overall death rate falling, case counts have risen to the fore, with young people leading the way. But because few of them are losing their lives, persuading them that the pandemic remains a serious concern becomes more challenging — especially in light of statistics like these.

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