House Districts 16 and 19 are both represented by Democrats, but the GOP could flip the seats. Republican Rebecca Keltie is leading in HD 16 in El Paso County by 21 votes, receiving 50.03 percent over Democrat incumbent Steph Vigil's 49.97 percent. In HD 19 in Weld and Boulder counties, Republican Dan Woog is beating Democrat Jillaire McMillan by 228 votes, 50.2 percent to 49.8 percent.
Those election results are unofficial tallies from the Colorado Secretary of State's Office as of Tuesday, November 12. Votes are still being counted, including military and overseas ballots and cured ballots; counties must submit final results to the Secretary of State's Office on Friday.
If the margin of victory in these races is narrow enough (0.5 percent or less of the leading candidate's vote total), then an automatic recount will be triggered, and the official results won't be known for a while.
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One other seat, House District 50, is already set to switch parties: Democratic Representative Mary Young has represented the Weld County district since 2019, but Republican Ryan Gonzalez defeated the incumbent by just over 550 votes, 51.08 percent to 48.92 percent. Young conceded to Gonzalez on November 8.
If House Districts 16 and 19 also go red, Democrats will lose their supermajority hold over the state House.
Right now, there are 46 Democrats and nineteen Republicans in the House, giving Democrats more than a two-thirds majority. Losing HDs 16, 19 and 50 would lower the party ratio to 43 Democrats and 22 Republicans, making Democrats just one seat shy of a supermajority.
House Democrats secured their supermajority during the 2022 election. Before that, they hadn't had that kind of dominance over the chamber since 1960, when they maintained the supermajority for only one election cycle — which could also be the case this time around.
The legislature needs two-thirds approval from both chambers to override gubernatorial vetoes and to send constitutional amendments to voters. With the House supermajority, Democrats can reach those thresholds without needing support from any Republican representatives. However, Democrats still need one Republican vote in the Senate, where there are currently 23 Democrats and twelve Republicans.
That one vote has made a difference in the past. Earlier this year, Democrats brought forward a bill for a constitutional ballot measure that would have allowed lawsuits over child sexual abuse that occurred in the 2000s and earlier. Republicans blocked the measure when all twelve of the GOP senators voted against it, leaving Democrats a single vote short of the required supermajority.
Democrats will likely fail to secure a supermajority again in the Senate this year. One seat, Senate District 12, is expected to flip from Republican to Democrat — but another, District 13, is expected to flip from Democrat to Republican, maintaining the existing party split.
Democrat Marc Snyder, who currently serves in the House, is leading against Republican Stan VanderWerf in SD 12 in El Paso and Teller counties, 48.87 percent to 47.5 percent as of Tuesday. The district is represented by outgoing term-limited Republican Senator Bob Gardner.
In SD 13 in Weld and Adams counties, Republican Scott Bright is beating Democrat Matt Johnston, 56.67 percent to 43.33 percent. That district is currently represented by term-limited Democratic Senator Kevin Priola, who was elected as a Republican and switched parties in 2022.
Democrats have not had a supermajority in the state Senate since 1938.
Republicans most recently had a supermajority in the Senate in 1990 and in the House in 1986.
Update: The Republican candidates were victorious in the races for House Districts 16 and 19, according to final, unofficial election results available early on November 15. Pending certification and the automatic recounts triggered for both races, if those results hold, Democrats will lose the supermajority in the House.
