Five Ways the Broncos Can Upset the Bills in the Playoffs

For the first time since a little game known as Super Bowl 50 in 2016, the Denver Broncos are in the NFL playoffs. But their path back to the promised land is paved with pitfalls, led by the Buffalo Bills, a team with a lot more life than their namesake, who is buried outside the Mile High City.

Quarterbacked by Josh Allen, a University of Wyoming alum who has probably cleared shelf space for the MVP trophy, the Bills boast a 13-4 record as well as a stout offensive line that's given up just fourteen sacks so far this season, a brawny rushing attack, and a receiving corps revitalized by the addition of veteran Amare Cooper. And while Buffalo's defense isn't quite as formidable, it's good enough that former Bronco and future Hall of Famer Von Miller is practically an afterthought.

Given that Buffalo will be playing at home and the game is scheduled for 11 a.m. on Sunday, January 12 (the sort of early start that spells trouble for western teams that must head east), most oddsmakers barely give the Broncos a hope in hell, with early betting lines favoring Buffalo by 8.5 points.

Nonetheless, Denver fans intoxicated by a 38-0 destruction of the Kansas City Chiefs on January 5 are convinced that the Broncos can and will buffalo the Bills. Sure, KC's crew in that game largely consisted of backups, and we're pretty sure Buffalo plans to play its starters. But the Denver faithful bo-lieve in rookie QB Bo Nix, and point out that the Broncos beat the Bills in western New York last season despite a series of special teams mishaps.

So...do Nix, head coach Sean Payton and the rest of the Broncos have a chance at victory? Yes, if they manage to do these five things:

Don't let Josh Allen run wild

Allen is a big guy, to understate the situation considerably. At six-feet, five-inches tall and around 240 pounds, he's as dangerous using his feet as he is deploying an arm that's been compared to that of John Elway (and a rocket launcher). One reason he's brought down behind the line of scrimmage so seldom is because he's capable of delivering the ball with defensive linemen hanging on him like a set of drapes. Moreover, he can gain big yards on both designed runs and broken plays — and when there's an opening in the latter scenario, he resembles the Incredible Hulk after realizing he ruined another shirt.

Fortunately, the Broncos are blessed with an impressive defensive front anchored by Zach Allen (no relation to Josh) and Nik Bonitto, who finished the regular season with thirteen-and-a-half sacks. They don't need to repeatedly plant the Bills' quarterback to be effective, but they must keep him in the pocket as often as possible and bother him into errant tosses that might end up in the arms of Patrick Surtain and others in the Denver secondary. If they fail, things could get ugly fast.

Don't let Bo Nix be wild

Nix has clearly matured a great deal since his first couple of games as a Bronco, when he was an interception machine who couldn't seem to throw the ball with accuracy more than three yards down the field. But he can still be an excitable boy, especially while under pressure or when time is at a premium. That can lead to unwise decisions, as when he tried to run a play near the end of the first half against Kansas City, thereby allowing precious seconds to tick away, rather than spiking the ball to freeze time. This gaffe didn't prove costly against the Chiefs, who couldn't have seemed more disinterested in the contest, but that won't fly in Buffalo.

An effective running attack would help Nix immensely, but Denver's success on the ground this season has been sporadic at best. If Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime can't average at least four yards a carry, Nix needs to get the ball out of his hands quickly but not exclusively into the backfield. He's shown that he's capable of working over the middle, and a few quick strikes should slow the Buffalo rush enough to provide breathing room. And when there's no oxygen to be found, he must continue throwing the ball away rather than trying to transform a bad situation into a miracle. There are worse things than punting...including pick sixes.

Don't let the Buffalo crowd go wild

Being a long-time fan of the Buffalo Bills isn't easy: The team has never won a Super Bowl, but once lost four in a row. Then there's the weather, which frequently lives up to its terrible reputation. But surviving the wintry onslaught is a badge of honor for Buffalo residents, many of whom happily volunteer to shovel out the Bills' stadium when blizzards strike before games.

The presence of such lunatics gives Buffalo the sort of advantage reminiscent of ancient Rome's Circus Maximus. If the Broncos want to emerge from western New York with a win, they need to avoid whipping up crowd members as much as possible — because no matter how cold it might be, the crazy attendees can get hot mighty fast.

Give up field goals, not touchdowns

True, math is hard. But you don't need to be an expert in analytics to understand that three points are less than six, seven or eight. Even if Denver's D is stout, the Bills will gain yardage; Allen and company are too good to stay stuck in the mud throughout the contest. But the Broncos need to keep Buffalo between the twenties and act as if the red zone is hot lava — because if Allen and running back James Cook get there, Denver will get burned. Cook has sixteen rushing touchdowns this season, while Allen has twelve of his own in 2024-2025 to go along with 28 through the air.

The shutout against the Chiefs' bench-sitters won't happen again, but Denver will have a much better shot at staying in the game if Bills kicker Tyler Bass does most of the scoring for his squad.

Sean Payton needs to keep his ego in check — and manage time

The Broncos wouldn't have had to defeat Kansas City in week eighteen if they'd triumphed over either the Los Angeles Chargers or the Cincinnati Bengals during the previous two weeks. But Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh thoroughly outcoached Payton en route to a victory, and Payton's decision to eschew a two-point-conversion try that could have prevented an overtime loss to the Bengals turned loads of Denver boosters orange with rage.

Payton's an infinitely better coach than his predecessor, Nathaniel Hackett, but his clock management has been inconsistent, and his play-calling can vacillate between overly conservative and too cute. He needs to keep his admiration of his own genius on the down-low, particularly in dramatic situations, and do the simple things needed to win. Then he can love himself all he wants.

And we'll love him, too — for at least another week.