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A lot of Coloradans think the weather here is the most unpredictable in the country. Not so, counters Nate Silver, the statistician renowned for correctly predicting the 2012 presidential election. At his FiveThirtyEight.com site, Silver (and co-author Reuben Fischer-Baum) set out to determine which American city really has the most unpredictable weather, and the three Colorado communities featured — including Denver — are way down the list. Check out the Silver/Fischer-Baum top twelve below, followed by the Colorado entries, featuring FiveThirtyEight stats and videos for each location.
See also: Photos: Fifteen Colorado Cities With the Best Weather
Note: Here’s how Silver/Fischer-Baum describe the scoring:
Higher values indicate more unpredictability:
• Scores in the 80s or above indicate very high unpredictability.
• Scores in the 70s indicate above-average unpredictability.
• Scores in the 60s indicate average unpredictability.
• Scores in the 50s indicate comparatively predictable weather patterns.
• Scores in the 40s or below indicate highly predictable weather.For the full methodology, click here.
Number 1: Rapid City, South Dakota
Temperature: 95
Precipitation: 66
Severe weather: 88
Unpredictability index: 84
Number 2: Great Falls, Montana
Temperature: 103
Precipitation: 65
Severe weather: 81
Unpredictability index: 83
Number 3: Houghton, Michigan
Temperature: 73
Precipitation: 107
Severe weather: 69
Unpredictability index: 82
Continue for more about cities whose weather is way more unpredictable than Denver’s, as well as figures from three Colorado cities.
Number 4: Sioux Falls, South Dakota
Temperature: 90
Precipitation: 74
Severe weather: 79
Unpredictability index: 81
Number 5: Fargo, North Dakota
Temperature: 94
Precipitation: 79
Severe weather: 70
Unpredictability index: 80
Number 6: Duluth, Minnesota
Temperature: 83
Precipitation: 85
Severe weather: 73
Unpredictability index: 80
Continue for more about cities whose weather is way more unpredictable than Denver’s, as well as figures from three Colorado cities.
Number 7: Bismarck, North Dakota
Temperature: 96
Precipitation: 73
Severe weather: 73
Unpredictability index: 80
Number 8: Aberdeen, South Dakota
Temperature: 94
Precipitation: 72
Severe weather: 75
Unpredictability index: 80
Number 9: Grand Island, Nebraska
Temperature: 87
Precipitation: 67
Severe weather: 82
Unpredictability index: 79
Continue for more about cities whose weather is way more unpredictable than Denver’s, as well as figures from three Colorado cities.
Number 10: Glasgow, Montana
Temperature: 98
Precipitation: 65
Severe weather: 71
Unpredictability index: 77
Number 11: Cheyenne, Wyoming
Temperature: 81
Precipitation: 64
Severe weather: 85
Unpredictability index: 77
Number 12: LaCrosse, Wisconsin
Temperature: 83
Precipitation: 82
Severe weather: 68
Unpredictability index: 77
Continue for figures from three Colorado cities.
Here’s how the three Colorado cities finished in the Silver/Fischer-Baum weather-unpredictability sweepstakes:
Number 50: Colorado Springs, Colorado
Temperature: 74
Precipitation: 59
Severe weather: 77
Unpredictability index: 71
Number 79: Denver, Colorado
Temperature: 79
Precipitation: 52
Severe weather: 67
Unpredictability index: 66
Number 97: Grand Junction, Colorado:
Temperature: 58
Precipitation: 52
Severe weather: 62
Unpredictability index: 57
Send your story tips to the author, Michael Roberts.
