More Messages: The Wrong Forecast

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Not quite cynical enough about weather forecasting? Then here's an item that should make you feel even more jaded. As he watched the snow falling this morning, a sharp-eyed reader thought of this article in the December 6 Denver Post. Headlined "Arrival of El Ni�o May Mean Dry Winter for Colorado," the article, by reporter Kim McGuire, led with the following sentences: "If last week's snowstorm had you dreaming about baking in the sun on a south Florida beach, there may be no need to make travel plans. Forecasters are predicting a virtual no-show for snow and slightly warmer temperatures across much of Colorado for the next few months." These statements were bolstered by a quote from Klaus Wolter, identified as a University of Colorado and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientist. Referring to a storm in late November, he said, "It might be the last hurrah for quite some time."

According to my calculations, there's a roughly 100 percent chance that the esteemed Mr. Wolter was wrong. -- Michael Roberts